Carmack’s Wrong. How can Carmack be wrong?

It’s a weird position to be disagreeing with John Carmack.

The man’s a well-known authority on everything to do with tech, and especially on VR. He’s the guy who made DOOM and Quake. His legendary Quakeworld address ignited public interest in VR. His decision to move to Oculus was hailed as one of the best signs for VR.

Doesn’t matter. I can’t buy this:

Honestly, I wasn’t expecting Facebook (or this soon). I have zero personal background with them, and I could think of other companies that would have more obvious synergies. However, I do have reasons to believe that they get the Big Picture as I see it, and will be a powerful force towards making it happen. You don’t make a commitment like they just did on a whim.

John, everything I read says that these decisions were made on a whim. The decision was made in literal days: 3 days by some accounts, 5 days by others. Oculus had just discovered that they have serious competition, including Sony’s own Morpheus headset. They were in trouble and needed a big wallet to stay ahead.

Meanwhile, Facebook was and is terrified over their inability to make a serious splash on mobile platforms,to the point of paying an unbelievable $20b for WhatsApp. Suddenly they’re given an opportunity to get in on the Next Big Thing, VR, by taking advantage of Oculus’ fragility and buying their way in. They had to do it immediately, though, before Google or Microsoft come calling.  Considering that Palmer Luckey is, what, 21 years old, it was never going to be that difficult. So they proceed to roll over Oculus like a semi carrying a load of gold bricks, and three-to-five days later it’s all over.

What about any of this doesn’t say “whim”? I suppose the sequence of events might imply that it’s motivated less by whim and more by desperation, but it’s still the opposite of a carefully considered decision on anybody’s part. This could blow up spectacularly, on the level of AOL/Time Warner, and nothing I’ve seen yet suggests it won’t.

Sure, VR in games will still be fine. VR in general will still be fine. Still confident about that. But everything I read about this makes me less confident in Oculus. And, sadly, that now includes Oculus’ CTO.

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